“In the long term, I think that the fundamentals of the U.S. are a lot stronger than other advanced countries,” he said. “In the short run, I think we will have another year of very anemic economic growth. Next year we will have barely 1.7% including a modest amount of fiscal drag and lots of tail risk could make it worse in the U.S — bigger fiscal cliff, the euro-zone crisis, a Chinese hard landing, maybe tensions will raise oil prices in the Middle East — so the downside scenario is actually having a meaningful probability.” Source: Marketwatch.com
Robert Shiller, the economist who co- founded the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices, said a further decline in property values of 10 percent to 25 percent in the next five years “wouldn’t surprise me at all.”
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the U.S. financial crisis, says surging food and energy costs are stoking emerging-market inflation that’s serious enough to topple governments.
“It’s a train wreck coming, we all know it’s going to happen”
$554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010
Two wars has strapped the current administration with explosive debt expense growth.
Percent of GDP spending on debt service is:
1.7 percent of United States
2.5 percent for Germany,
2.6 percent for the United Kingdom
2.9 percent for Japan
1.7 percent for Mexico
5.2 percent for Brazil
0.4 percent for China
While some of the lowest borrowing costs on record have helped the economy recover from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, bond yields are now rising as growth resumes. Net interest expense will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.
The amount of marketable U.S. government debt outstanding has risen to $8.96 trillion from $5.8 trillion at the end of 2008, according to the Treasury Department. Debt-service costs will climb to 82 percent of the $757 billion shortfall projected for 2016 from about 12 percent in last year’s deficit, according to the budget projections.
Difficult times often offer the chance to solve some of our most challenging problems. How can we recognize these opportunities to move our businesses, our economies, and our world forward in a sustainable manner?
Chrystia Freeland Global Editor-at-large, Reuters
James Wolfensohn Chairman, Wolfensohn & Company, LLC
Nouriel Roubini Chairman & Co-founder, Roubini Global Economics
Ted Turner Chairman, United Nations Foundation
Tom Brokaw Special Correspondent, NBC News
Mikkel Vestergaard CEO, Vestergaard Frandsen Group
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