[Picture Via: sciencemag.org]
Artificial intelligence and robotics
Robots capable of manual labour tasks–
- 2015–2020 – Every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007
- 2018 – Robots will routinely carry out surgery, South Korea government 2007[2]
- 2022 – Intelligent robots that sense their environment, make decisions, and learn are used in 30% of households and organizations – TechCast[3]
- 2026 – Development of a robotic hand that is able to perform certain complex tasks with a level of precision, autonomy and dexterity that is similar to that of a human hand, Professor Mohamed Abderrahim of the EU funded HANDLE Research Project[4]
- 2030 – Robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain[5]
- 2034 – Robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot
Military robots
- 2015 – One third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots – US Department of Defense, 2006[7]
- 2035 – First completely autonomous robot soldiers in operation – US Department of Defense, 2006[7]
Developments related to robotics from the Japan NISTEP[8] 2030 report:
- 2013–2014 – agricultural robots (AgRobots[9][10])
- 2013–2017 – Robots that care for the elderly
- 2017 – medical robots performing low-invasive surgery
- 2017–2019 – Household robots with full use
- 2019–2021 – Nanorobots
- 2021–2022 – Transhumanism
Artificial intelligence
- 2019 – $1,000 computer will match the processing power of the human brain – Ray Kurzweil[11]
- 2020 – Artificial Intelligence reaches human levels – Arthur C. Clarke 2001 prediction[12]
- 2045 – The Singularity (creation of the first ultraintelligent machine) occurs – Ray Kurzweil[13]
- 2050 – Computer costing a few hundred pounds will have the capacity of the human mind – Hans Moravec[14]
- 2055 – $1,000 computer will match the processing power of all human brains on Earth – Ray Kurzweil[11]
Biology and medicine
Visual prosthetics
- 2011 – Digital devices with implantable parts (Joseph Reger, Fujitsu-Siemens Technology Director, 2007,[15])
Regenerative medicine
Widespread use for most tissues and organs – 2020 (Federal Initiative for Regenerative Medicine)[16]
- 2014–2024 – (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) – comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice[17]
Cloning of dinosaurs
- 2023 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
Reverse engineering of human brain
- 2025 – Ray Kurzweil, 2005[18]
Communications
All communications are IP-based
- 2014 – Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004[19]
Computing
10 petaFLOPS supercomputer (the amount required to simulate the human brain according to Kurzweil)
1 zettaFLOPS supercomputer
- 2032 – University of Notre Dame[21]
User interface
- 2013 – Voice control replace keyboard/mouse interface for 30% of routine tasks – TechCast[3]
Video game graphics
- 2019-2024 – Photo-realism in video games – Epic Games’ Founder, Technical Director, and CEO Tim Sweeney[22]
[edit]Culture and leisure
Virtual reality
- 2025 – Full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
- 2030 – Virtual reality allows any type of interaction with anyone, regardless of physical proximity – Ray Kurzweil[11]
Sport
- 2050 – A team of fully autonomous humanoid robots can win against the human world soccer champion team – RoboCup, 1997[23]
Demographics
World population exceeds 7 billion
- 2011 – U.S. Census Bureau[24]
- 2011 – United Nations[25]
World population exceeds 8 billion
- 2026 – U.S. Census Bureau[24]
- 2028 – United Nations[25]
World population exceeds 9 billion
- 2043 – U.S. Census Bureau[24]
- 2054 – United Nations[25]
21st century, then not growing further – Walter Greiling[26]
World population exceeds 10 billion
- 2183 – United Nations[25]
Other demographic milestones
- 2020 – World average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 70 years – World Resources Institute[27]
- 2030 – Number of people aged 65 or older exceeds 1 billion – Ray Hammond[28]
- 2030 – New-born child in developed country has life expectancy of 130 years – Ray Hammond[28]
- 2045 – World average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 75 years – World Resources Institute[27]
Energy
Peak oil – global oil production peaks
- 2011 – Colin Campbell, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre[29]
- 2013 – French government report[30]
Other energy milestones
- 2020 – U.S. carbon emission market exceeds $1 trillion – New Carbon Finance[31]
- 2023 – Alternatives to carbon-based fuels provide 30% of all energy used worldwide – TechCast[3]
Environment
Arctic shrinkage – Arctic ice-free in summer
- 2013 – Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, U. S. Naval Postgraduate School[32]
- 2040 – National Center for Atmospheric Research[33]
Arctic shrinkage – arctic ice-free all year
- 2020 – Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Center[34]
Other environmental milestones
- 2098 – Coral cover on Great Barrier Reef drops below 10% – Dr Eric Wolanski, James Cook University[35]
Nanotechnology
Nanomachines in commercial use
- 2019 – Nanotechnology is used in 30% of commercial products – TechCast[3]
- 2020 – Nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by an on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton. US Army, estimates from The Vision 2020 Future Warrior project, 2004
Universal replicator is developed
- 2040 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
Politics and economics
International Politics
- 2012-onward – The United States of America lose the superpower status – Peter Dale Scott and Emmanuel Todd – After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order
- 2012-onward – The United States of America come defeated in the New Great Game thus marking a “New New World Order” – Idriss Aberkane [36]
- 2012-onward – The United States of America default on its sovereign debt marking a major financial collapse and a steep rise in the Glocalisation of daily social interactions due to the increased cost of basic commodities – Gerald Celente
- 2020 – The American Empire disintegrates in a manner reminiscent to that of post 1989 USSR – Johan Galtung in a October 2009 interview for Russia Today [37] [38]
World economic growth
- 2015 – Brazil becomes the world’s fifth largest economy, surpassing France, UK and Italy – Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva [39]
- 2025 – One billion dollar-millionaires worldwide – James Canton, The Extreme Future[40]
- 2027 – China’s GDP exceeds that of United States – Goldman Sachs,[41] Price Waterhouse Coopers[42]
- 2032 – India’s GDP exceeds that of Japan – National Intelligence Council[43]
Transportation
Hybrid vehicles
- 2013 – Hybrid powered cars make up 30% of the new car market – TechCast[3]
Self-driving cars
- 2018 – Self-driving cars are commercially available – General Motors[44]
- 2030 – All cars travelling on major roads under control of satellite and roadside control systems – Ray Hammond[28]
Space
Asteroid mining
- 2024 – Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004[45]
Human landing on Mars
- 2020 – MIT’s Aeronautics and Astronautics department, 2005[46][47]
- 2021 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
- 2025 – A permanent Mars colony, 4Frontiers, 2005[48]
- 2030 – TechCast[3]
Near light speed travel
- 2095 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
Return to the Moon
- 2015 – Russian plans – Energia Corporation (2006)[49]
- 2020 – NASA plans first return to the Moon and moon colony no later than 2020 (2006)[50]
- 2024 – Chinese plans (2006)[51]
First moonbase
- 2030 – Russian plans (2011)[52]
Space elevator
- 2020 – Bradley C. Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research)
Space tourism and private spaceflight
- 2011 – Space flights become available to the public – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
- 2013 – “Space cruiser” takes a group of tourists outside of the Earth’s atmosphere – TechCast[3]
- 2024 – “Many thousands of people being able to afford” visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004[53]
Unmanned mission returns samples from Mars
Other
- 2020 – Implantable brain chips let humans control electronic devices via brain waves – Intel (2009)[55]
- 2013-2033 – Claytronics are now functioning in the real world – Seth Goldstein, associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University, founder and researcher at Claytronics Project (January 31, 2008)[56]
References
- ^ See editions of this calendar.
- ^ a b Robotic age poses ethical dilemma, BBC News
- ^ a b c d e f g Latest Forecast Results, TechCast
- ^ Scientists Developing Robotic Hand of the Future, ScienceDaily
- ^ 2003 Robotic Nation, Marshall Brain
- ^ Interview: Helen Greiner, Chairman and Cofounder of iRobot, Corp,
- ^ a b Launching a new kind of warfare, Guardian Online
- ^ Nistep Homepage
- ^ UIUC Agricultural Engineering | Faculty and Staff
- ^ service-robots.org – agriculture & harvesting
- ^ a b c The Coming Merging of Mind and Machine, Ray Kurzweil
- ^ a b c d e f g Interview with Arthur C. Clarke, November 30, 2001
- ^ *Kurzweil, Raymond (2005), The Singularity Is Near, New York: Viking, ISBN 0-670-03384-7
- ^ Robots rule OK?, BBS News
- ^ Люди-супермонстры, и не только
- ^ Dick Pelletier, “Regenerative medicine could cure most diseases by 2020″
- ^ The Fable of the Dragon Tyrant
- ^ Cory
- 2067- Robotic invasion will end humanity and Earth will turn into a Robotic Biosphere. – Greg Hufernsmutch [1]
- Doctorow, “Thought Experiments: When the Singularity is More Than a Literary Device: An Interview with Futurist-Inventor Ray Kurzweil”
- ^ Net pioneer predicts web future, BBC News
- ^ Taking on the Challenge of a 10-Petaflop Computer, Riken News April 2006
- ^ The Technology Lane on the Road to a Zettaflops
- ^ Epic: Photo-realistic games in ’10-15 years’
- ^ RoboCup Official Site
- ^ a b c U.S. Census Bureau International Database
- ^ a b c d The World at Six Billion, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
- ^ Walter Greiling: Wie werden wir leben? (“How are we going to live?”) Econ publishers, Munich 1954
- ^ a b Population, Health and Human Well-being – Demographics: Life expectancy at birth, both sexes, Earthtrends database
- ^ a b c The World in 2030, Ray Hammond
- ^ World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists, The Independent
- ^ ‘Peak oil’ enters mainstream debate, BBC News
- ^ Prediction: $1 Trillion U.S. Carbon Market By 2020
- ^ Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′, BBC News
- ^ Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040, NCAR Press Release
- ^ Arctic could be ice-free by 2020, beating predictions by 30 years
- ^ Great Barrier Reef coral cover could drop below 10% by 2098
- ^ Aberkane, Idriss. Brzezinski on a U.S. Berezina: anticipating a New, New World Order E-International Relations March 31. 2011
- ^ [Russia Today, Oct 30th 2009 "The American empire will collapse by 2020" | http://rt.com/usa/news/american-empire-collapse-2020/]
- ^ [Russia Today, Feb 21st 2011 "“US Empire” doomed to fall - sociologist" | http://rt.com/news/us-empire-fall-sociologist/]
- ^ Lula’s declaration
- ^ Billion millionaires by 2025 ?
- ^ BRICS AND BEYOND, Goldman Sachs
- ^ The World in 2050, PWC
- ^ Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project
- ^ GM researching driverless cars
- ^ Mark Baard, “The Final Capitalist Frontier” (11.17.04).
- ^ David L Chandler, “Design choices may hurry humans to Mars” (01 September 2005).
- ^ Zonk, “Visiting Our Red Space Neighbor” (Sep 09, 2005).
- ^ Slideshow: The Next Mother Lode: Mars
- ^ Russia will develop space elevators
- ^ Robert Z. Pearlman, “NASA Confirms New Moon Vehicle is Orion” (23 August 2006).
- ^ [2][dead link]
- ^ Russians see room for moonbase in lunar lava caves
- ^ http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2004/local/20041220215558.shtml
- ^ Mars 2007 Missions and beyond, NASA
- ^ Intel: Chips in brains will control computers by 2020
- ^ Shape-shifting robot swarms will create 3D replicas
- ^ http://www.nanowerk.com/news/newsid=3290.php
