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Future Predictions: China Banking Losses May be Bigger Than U.S. TARP Bailout

Filed under: China, Economics, Future Predictions by futurepredictions — 1 Comment

June 21, 2011

Meet James D. Wolfensohn, the 9th president of the World Bank

China in 2009 and 2010 made new loans amounting to a total of 20 trillion yuan ($3.1 trillion), with estimates of how many would go bad in a range from 25% to 30%….the scale of such a rescue is staggering—at about 7% of gross domestic product making the China banking problem bigger than the U.S. TARP bailout. Source>>>WSJ

THE FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD BANK, JAMES WOLFENSOHN, MAKES STUNNING CONFESSIONS AS HE ADDRESSES GRADUATE STUDENTS AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY. HE REVEALS THE INSIDE HAND OF WORLD DOMINATION FROM PAST, TO THE PRESENT AND INTO THE FUTURE. THE SPEECH WAS MAS MADE JANUARY 11TH, 2010. THE NEXT 19 MINUTES MAY OPEN YOUR MIND TO A VERY DELIBERATE WORLD.

HE TELLS THE GRAD STUDENTS WHAT’S COMING, A “TECTONIC SHIFT” IN WEALTH FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. BUT HE DOESN’T TELL THE STUDENTS THAT IT IS HIS INSTITUTION, THE WORLD BANK, THAT’S DIRECTING AND CHANNELING THESE CHANGES.

WOLFENSOHN’S OWN INVESTMENT FIRM IS IN CHINA, POISED TO PROFIT FROM THIS “IMMINENT SHIFT” IN GLOBAL WEALTH.

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Predictions: by a Predictioneer Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on How to predict the future with game-theory

Filed under: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, CIA, Future, Future Predictions, Prediction by futurepredictions — 2 Comments

December 26, 2010

Speaker: Professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

This event was recorded on 21 October 2009 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building
Hailed as ‘the new Nostradamus’, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been shaking the world of political science to its foundations with his predictions of world events. His systems based on game theory have an astonishing 90%+ ratio of accuracy and are frequently used to shape US foreign-policy decisions on issues such as the terrorist threat to America to the peace process in Northern Ireland. Considered by many to be the most important foreign-policy analyst there is, it is no surprise that he is regularly consulted by the CIA and US Department of Defence. In this lecture Professor Bueno de Mesquita will look at what is needed to reliably anticipate and even alter events in any situation involving negotiation in the shadow of the threat of coercion. He will demonstrate how to bring science to decision making in any situation from personal to professional.

Tags: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, economic, Future, future prediction, Future Predictions, FUTUREPREDICTIONS, futurepredictions.com, futurist, futuristic, game theory, Iran, Statistics, War

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Future Predictions of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Interview

Filed under: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Education, Freedom, Future, Future Predictions, Prediction by futurepredictions — 7 Comments

October 15, 2010

Riz Khan – The art and science of prediction

Game Theory and Rational Choice Theory

See additional futurepredictions.com posts on Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Rational choice theory

Insofar as economics explains and predicts phenomena as consequences of individual choices, which are themselves explained in terms of reasons, it must depict agents as to some extent rational. Rationality, like reasons, involves evaluation, and just as one can assess the rationality of individual choices, so one can assess the rationality of social choices and examine how they are and ought to be related to the preferences and judgments of individuals. In addition, there are intricate questions concerning rationality in strategic situations in which outcomes depend on the choices of multiple individuals. Since rationality is a central concept in branches of philosophy such as action theory, epistemology, ethics, and philosophy of mind, studies of rationality frequently cross the boundaries between economics and philosophy and thus constitute one of the domains of philosophy of economics.

Game theory

is the study of strategic decision making. More formally, it is “the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers.” An alternative term suggested “as a more descriptive name for the discipline” is interactive decision theory. Game theory is mainly used in economics, political science, and psychology, as well as logic and biology. The subject first addressed zero-sum games, such that one person’s gains exactly equal net losses of the other participant(s). Today, however, game theory applies to a wide range of class relations, and has developed into an umbrella term for the logical side of science, to include both human and non-humans, like computers. Classic uses include a sense of balance in numerous games, where each person has found or developed a tactic that cannot successfully better his results, given the other approach.

Tags: arthur c clark, Bruce, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Bueno, Calendar, de, game theory, Khan, Mayan, mesquita, Riz

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“The Trap” explores Game Theory from the Nash Equilibrium predicting the future

Filed under: Education, Freedom, Future, Future Predictions, Getting It by futurepredictions — 5 Comments

September 7, 2009

John Forbes Nash, In game theory, Nash equilibrium

Click the picture to access a short video on Game Theory

(named after John Forbes Nash, who proposed it) is a solution concept of a game involving two or more players, in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only his or her own strategy unilaterally. If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing his or her strategy while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitute a Nash equilibrium.

Adam Curtis of the BBC

Adam_curtis

The series consists of three one-hour programmes which explore the concept and definition of freedom, specifically, “how a simplistic model of human beings as self-seeking, almost robotic, creatures led to today’s idea of freedom.”

PART 1 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=404227395387111085#

PART 2
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=404227395387111085#docid=-1087742888040457650

PART 3
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8389886774314947871&ei=jTKlSqK6PJv-qAPv4JDCBA&q=THE+TRAP+3#

Adam Curtis (born 1955) is a British television documentary maker who has during the course of his television career worked as a writer, producer, director and narrator. He currently works for BBC Current Affairs. His programmes express a clear (and sometimes controversial) opinion about their subject, and he narrates the programmes himself.

Source: Wiki