Category: Prediction

Future Predictions: 330 Million “Dead Men Walking” Bill Gross Observing the $66 Trillion in Unfunded Liabilities on the U.S. Balance Sheet

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January 5, 2012

“The Old/New Normal”

“But before ringing in the New Year with a rather grim foreboding, let me at least describe what financial markets came to know as the “old normal.” It actually began with early 20th century fractional reserve banking, but came into its adulthood in 1971 when the U.S. and the world departed from gold to a debt-based credit foundation. Some called it a dollar standard but it was really a credit standard based on dollars and unlike gold with its scarcity and hard money character, the new credit-based standard had no anchor – dollar or otherwise. All developed economies from 1971 and beyond learned to use credit and the expansion of debt to drive growth and prosperity. Almost all developed and some emerging economies became hooked on credit as a substitution for investment in tangible real things – plant, equipment and an educated labor force. They made paper, not things, so much of it it seems, that they debased it. Interest rates were lowered and assets securitized to the point where they could go no further and in the aftermath of Lehman 2008 markets substituted sovereign for private credit until it appears that that trend can go no further either. Now we are left with zero-bound yields and creditors that trust no one and very few countries. The financial markets are slowly imploding – delevering – because there’s too much paper and too little trust. Goodbye “Old Normal,” standby to redefine “New Normal,” and welcome to 2012’s paranormal.”

PIMCO’S BILL GROSS’s SUMMARY OF PREDICTIONS FOR 2012

For 2012, in the face of a delevering zero-bound interest rate world, investors must lower return expectations. 2–5% for stocks, bonds and commodities are expected long term returns for global financial markets that have been pushed to the zero bound, a world where substantial real price appreciation is getting close to mathematically improbable. Adjust your expectations, prepare for bimodal outcomes. It is different this time and will continue to be for a number of years. The New Normal is “Sub,” “Ab,” “Para” and then some. The financial markets and global economies are at great risk.

Future Predictions: Super Committee Generates Prediction From Former Sec. of Defense Gates Who Says the Result of the Automatic Cuts in Defense Will be “Catastrophic” to America’s National Security

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November 17, 2011

FROM THE GUY WHO KNOWS OUR SECRETS AND OUR ENEMIES

THE SUPER COMMITTEE

[Via: Compiled by Thaisi H. Da Silva for NewsHour Extra]

Tags: 1.2 trillion, automatic defense cuts, bill gates, committee, congress, defense, gates, Robert, SUPER, supercommitte

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Future Predictions: Wikipedia Predictions for the Future

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November 10, 2011

[Picture Via: sciencemag.org]

Artificial intelligence and robotics
Robots capable of manual labour tasks–

2015–2020 – Every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007
2018 – Robots will routinely carry out surgery, South Korea government 2007[2]
2022 – Intelligent robots that sense their environment, make decisions, and learn are used in 30% of households and organizations – TechCast[3]
2026 – Development of a robotic hand that is able to perform certain complex tasks with a level of precision, autonomy and dexterity that is similar to that of a human hand, Professor Mohamed Abderrahim of the EU funded HANDLE Research Project[4]
2030 – Robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain[5]
2034 – Robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot

Military robots

2015 – One third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots – US Department of Defense, 2006[7]
2035 – First completely autonomous robot soldiers in operation – US Department of Defense, 2006[7]

Developments related to robotics from the Japan NISTEP[8] 2030 report:

2013–2014 – agricultural robots (AgRobots[9][10])
2013–2017 – Robots that care for the elderly
2017 – medical robots performing low-invasive surgery
2017–2019 – Household robots with full use
2019–2021 – Nanorobots
2021–2022 – Transhumanism

Artificial intelligence

2019 – $1,000 computer will match the processing power of the human brain – Ray Kurzweil[11]
2020 – Artificial Intelligence reaches human levels – Arthur C. Clarke 2001 prediction[12]
2045 – The Singularity (creation of the first ultraintelligent machine) occurs – Ray Kurzweil[13]
2050 – Computer costing a few hundred pounds will have the capacity of the human mind – Hans Moravec[14]
2055 – $1,000 computer will match the processing power of all human brains on Earth – Ray Kurzweil[11]

Biology and medicine
Visual prosthetics

2011 – Digital devices with implantable parts (Joseph Reger, Fujitsu-Siemens Technology Director, 2007,[15])

Regenerative medicine
Widespread use for most tissues and organs – 2020 (Federal Initiative for Regenerative Medicine)[16]

2014–2024 – (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) – comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice[17]

Cloning of dinosaurs

2023 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]

Reverse engineering of human brain

2025 – Ray Kurzweil, 2005[18]

Communications
All communications are IP-based

2014 – Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004[19]

Computing
10 petaFLOPS supercomputer (the amount required to simulate the human brain according to Kurzweil)

2012 – Riken[20]

1 zettaFLOPS supercomputer

2032 – University of Notre Dame[21]

User interface

2013 – Voice control replace keyboard/mouse interface for 30% of routine tasks – TechCast[3]

Video game graphics

2019-2024 – Photo-realism in video games – Epic Games’ Founder, Technical Director, and CEO Tim Sweeney[22]

[edit]Culture and leisure
Virtual reality

2025 – Full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
2030 – Virtual reality allows any type of interaction with anyone, regardless of physical proximity – Ray Kurzweil[11]

Sport

2050 – A team of fully autonomous humanoid robots can win against the human world soccer champion team – RoboCup, 1997[23]

Demographics
World population exceeds 7 billion

2011 – U.S. Census Bureau[24]
2011 – United Nations[25]

World population exceeds 8 billion

2026 – U.S. Census Bureau[24]
2028 – United Nations[25]

World population exceeds 9 billion

2043 – U.S. Census Bureau[24]
2054 – United Nations[25]

21st century, then not growing further – Walter Greiling[26]
World population exceeds 10 billion

2183 – United Nations[25]

Other demographic milestones

2020 – World average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 70 years – World Resources Institute[27]
2030 – Number of people aged 65 or older exceeds 1 billion – Ray Hammond[28]
2030 – New-born child in developed country has life expectancy of 130 years – Ray Hammond[28]
2045 – World average life expectancy of new-born child exceeds 75 years – World Resources Institute[27]

Energy
Peak oil – global oil production peaks

2011 – Colin Campbell, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre[29]
2013 – French government report[30]

Other energy milestones

2020 – U.S. carbon emission market exceeds $1 trillion – New Carbon Finance[31]
2023 – Alternatives to carbon-based fuels provide 30% of all energy used worldwide – TechCast[3]

Environment
Arctic shrinkage – Arctic ice-free in summer

2013 – Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, U. S. Naval Postgraduate School[32]
2040 – National Center for Atmospheric Research[33]

Arctic shrinkage – arctic ice-free all year

2020 – Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Center[34]

Other environmental milestones

2098 – Coral cover on Great Barrier Reef drops below 10% – Dr Eric Wolanski, James Cook University[35]

Nanotechnology
Nanomachines in commercial use

2019 – Nanotechnology is used in 30% of commercial products – TechCast[3]
2020 – Nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by an on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton. US Army, estimates from The Vision 2020 Future Warrior project, 2004

Universal replicator is developed

2040 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]

Politics and economics
International Politics

2012-onward – The United States of America lose the superpower status – Peter Dale Scott and Emmanuel Todd – After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order
2012-onward – The United States of America come defeated in the New Great Game thus marking a “New New World Order” – Idriss Aberkane [36]
2012-onward – The United States of America default on its sovereign debt marking a major financial collapse and a steep rise in the Glocalisation of daily social interactions due to the increased cost of basic commodities – Gerald Celente
2020 – The American Empire disintegrates in a manner reminiscent to that of post 1989 USSR – Johan Galtung in a October 2009 interview for Russia Today [37] [38]

World economic growth

2015 – Brazil becomes the world’s fifth largest economy, surpassing France, UK and Italy – Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva [39]
2025 – One billion dollar-millionaires worldwide – James Canton, The Extreme Future[40]
2027 – China’s GDP exceeds that of United States – Goldman Sachs,[41] Price Waterhouse Coopers[42]
2032 – India’s GDP exceeds that of Japan – National Intelligence Council[43]

Transportation
Hybrid vehicles

2013 – Hybrid powered cars make up 30% of the new car market – TechCast[3]

Self-driving cars

2018 – Self-driving cars are commercially available – General Motors[44]
2030 – All cars travelling on major roads under control of satellite and roadside control systems – Ray Hammond[28]

Space
Asteroid mining

2024 – Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004[45]

Human landing on Mars

2020 – MIT’s Aeronautics and Astronautics department, 2005[46][47]
2021 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
2025 – A permanent Mars colony, 4Frontiers, 2005[48]
2030 – TechCast[3]

Near light speed travel

2095 – Arthur C. Clarke[12]

Return to the Moon

2015 – Russian plans – Energia Corporation (2006)[49]
2020 – NASA plans first return to the Moon and moon colony no later than 2020 (2006)[50]
2024 – Chinese plans (2006)[51]

First moonbase

2030 – Russian plans (2011)[52]

Space elevator

2020 – Bradley C. Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research)

Space tourism and private spaceflight

2011 – Space flights become available to the public – Arthur C. Clarke[12]
2013 – “Space cruiser” takes a group of tourists outside of the Earth’s atmosphere – TechCast[3]
2024 – “Many thousands of people being able to afford” visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004[53]

Unmanned mission returns samples from Mars

2020 – NASA[54]

Other

2020 – Implantable brain chips let humans control electronic devices via brain waves – Intel (2009)[55]
2013-2033 – Claytronics are now functioning in the real world – Seth Goldstein, associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University, founder and researcher at Claytronics Project (January 31, 2008)[56]

References

^ See editions of this calendar.
^ a b Robotic age poses ethical dilemma, BBC News
^ a b c d e f g Latest Forecast Results, TechCast
^ Scientists Developing Robotic Hand of the Future, ScienceDaily
^ 2003 Robotic Nation, Marshall Brain
^ Interview: Helen Greiner, Chairman and Cofounder of iRobot, Corp,
^ a b Launching a new kind of warfare, Guardian Online
^ Nistep Homepage
^ UIUC Agricultural Engineering | Faculty and Staff
^ service-robots.org – agriculture & harvesting
^ a b c The Coming Merging of Mind and Machine, Ray Kurzweil
^ a b c d e f g Interview with Arthur C. Clarke, November 30, 2001
^ *Kurzweil, Raymond (2005), The Singularity Is Near, New York: Viking, ISBN 0-670-03384-7
^ Robots rule OK?, BBS News
^ Люди-супермонстры, и не только
^ Dick Pelletier, “Regenerative medicine could cure most diseases by 2020″
^ The Fable of the Dragon Tyrant
^ Cory
2067- Robotic invasion will end humanity and Earth will turn into a Robotic Biosphere. – Greg Hufernsmutch [1]
Doctorow, “Thought Experiments: When the Singularity is More Than a Literary Device: An Interview with Futurist-Inventor Ray Kurzweil”
^ Net pioneer predicts web future, BBC News
^ Taking on the Challenge of a 10-Petaflop Computer, Riken News April 2006
^ The Technology Lane on the Road to a Zettaflops
^ Epic: Photo-realistic games in ’10-15 years’
^ RoboCup Official Site
^ a b c U.S. Census Bureau International Database
^ a b c d The World at Six Billion, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
^ Walter Greiling: Wie werden wir leben? (“How are we going to live?”) Econ publishers, Munich 1954
^ a b Population, Health and Human Well-being – Demographics: Life expectancy at birth, both sexes, Earthtrends database
^ a b c The World in 2030, Ray Hammond
^ World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists, The Independent
^ ‘Peak oil’ enters mainstream debate, BBC News
^ Prediction: $1 Trillion U.S. Carbon Market By 2020
^ Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′, BBC News
^ Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040, NCAR Press Release
^ Arctic could be ice-free by 2020, beating predictions by 30 years
^ Great Barrier Reef coral cover could drop below 10% by 2098
^ Aberkane, Idriss. Brzezinski on a U.S. Berezina: anticipating a New, New World Order E-International Relations March 31. 2011
^ [Russia Today, Oct 30th 2009 "The American empire will collapse by 2020" | http://rt.com/usa/news/american-empire-collapse-2020/]
^ [Russia Today, Feb 21st 2011 "“US Empire” doomed to fall - sociologist" | http://rt.com/news/us-empire-fall-sociologist/]
^ Lula’s declaration
^ Billion millionaires by 2025 ?
^ BRICS AND BEYOND, Goldman Sachs
^ The World in 2050, PWC
^ Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project
^ GM researching driverless cars
^ Mark Baard, “The Final Capitalist Frontier” (11.17.04).
^ David L Chandler, “Design choices may hurry humans to Mars” (01 September 2005).
^ Zonk, “Visiting Our Red Space Neighbor” (Sep 09, 2005).
^ Slideshow: The Next Mother Lode: Mars
^ Russia will develop space elevators
^ Robert Z. Pearlman, “NASA Confirms New Moon Vehicle is Orion” (23 August 2006).
^ [2][dead link]
^ Russians see room for moonbase in lunar lava caves
^ http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2004/local/20041220215558.shtml
^ Mars 2007 Missions and beyond, NASA
^ Intel: Chips in brains will control computers by 2020
^ Shape-shifting robot swarms will create 3D replicas
^ http://www.nanowerk.com/news/newsid=3290.php

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org

Tags: AI, autonomous, brazil, carbon market, census, Center, China, clarke, defense, dns, energia, engineering, Future, Future News, hybrid, India, japan, Kurzweil, line, mit, mokapetris, nanomachines, NASA, national snow and ice, Prediction, predictions, Ray, reverse, robocup, ROBOTS, solider, South Korea, ted scambos, time, timeline, uiuc, United Nations, wikipedia

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Future Predictions: If the U.S. Risk to Lenders Increased the Treasury Borrowing Rate May Rise by 10 Basis Points or by $130 Billion, Sticker Shock!

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November 5, 2011

CBO Director: How Likely Is a US Debt Default?

If the Risk to Lenders to the U.S. Treasury Caused in Increase in Borrowing Rate by Just 10 Basis Points the Result is $130 Billion

“Congressional Budget Office head Douglas Elmendorf says the US “can’t afford to take the views of its creditors lightly” as it considers the “dangerous gamble” of government default. “Leaders of both political parties have made clear that defaulting on government obligations is not acceptable, and will not be allowed to happen,” he says.

—–

Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf speaks with reporters at the Christian Science Monitor Breakfast. This program was recorded on June 14, 2011.

Douglas W. Elmendorf is the eighth Director of the Congressional Budget Office. His term began on January 22, 2009.

The Director of CBO oversees the agency’s work in providing objective, insightful, timely, and clearly presented information about budgetary and economic issues. The Director supervises the numerous analytical papers and cost estimates produced by the agency, and he testifies frequently before Congressional committees. In managing the agency, the Director is responsible for a staff of about 235 people and an annual budget of roughly $40 million.

Before he came to CBO, Doug Elmendorf was a senior fellow in the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution. As the Edward M. Bernstein Scholar, he served as coeditor of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity and the director of the Hamilton Project, an initiative to promote broadly shared economic growth.

Doug Elmendorf was previously an assistant professor at Harvard University, a principal analyst at the Congressional Budget Office, a senior economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, a deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department, and an assistant director of the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board. In those positions, he worked on budget policy, Social Security, Medicare, national health care reform, financial markets, macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, and other topics. He earned his Ph.D. and A.M. in economics from Harvard University, where he was a National Science Foundation graduate fellow, and his A.B. summa cum laude from Princeton University.”

[Via ForaTV]

Elmendorf may be the most important financial analyst in America: his client list is all 535 members of the U.S. Congress. His job is to “score” or provide a cost estimate of important legislation wending its way through the House and Senate. His cost analysis can often make or break a bill’s future.

Succeeding Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag, Elmendorf joined the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as the struggling economy was at the top of the political agenda. Like Orszag, he hails from the liberal think-tank the Brookings Institution and was the former director of the Hamilton Project, a pro-free trade and anti-deficit centrist Democratic group led by Orzsag and former Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.

Elmendorf continued what Orszag began as CBO head, including contributing to the CBO “Director’s Blog” and evaluating health-care reform’s impact on the national budget. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.) selected Elmendorf after getting recommendations from the House and Senate Budget Committees. The House and Senate alternate selects a new CBO director; Pelosi took the lead in selecting Elmendorf.(1)

Elmendorf has become a key player in the health-reform debate, as Republicans argue that it’s too costly and Orszag and the White House say not reforming the health system would actually cost more long-term.