Category: Getting It


“We found that [national intelligence] analyses, even when they were right, were vague compared to [Bueno de Mesquita's] forecasts. If you hit the target, that’s great. But if you hit the bull’s eye-that’s amazing.”

Stanley Feder, former CIA analyst


One of the Foreign Policy Top 100 Global Thinkers

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is also one of the authors of the selectorate theory.

He has founded a company, Mesquita & Roundell, that specializes in making political and foreign-policy forecasts using a computer model based on game theory and rational choice theory. He is also the director of New York University’s Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy.

If you listen to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and a lot of people don’t, he’ll claim that mathematics can tell you the future. In fact, the professor says that a computer model he built and has perfected over the last 25 years can predict the outcome of virtually any international conflict, provided the basic input is accurate. What’s more, his predictions are alarmingly specific. His fans include at least one current presidential hopeful, a gaggle of Fortune 500 companies, the CIA, and the Department of Defense.

To verify the accuracy of his model, the CIA set up a kind of forecasting face-off that pit predictions from his model against those of Langley’s more traditional in-house intelligence analysts and area specialists. “We tested Bueno de Mesquita’s model on scores of issues that were conducted in real time—that is, the forecasts were made before the events actually happened,” says Stanley Feder, a former high-level CIA analyst. “We found the model to be accurate 90 percent of the time,” he wrote. Another study evaluating Bueno de Mesquita’s real-time forecasts of 21 policy decisions in the European community concluded that “the probability that the predicted outcome was what indeed occurred was an astounding 97 percent.” What’s more, Bueno de Mesquita’s forecasts were much more detailed than those of the more traditional analysts. “The real issue is the specificity of the accuracy,” says Feder. “We found that DI (Directorate of National Intelligence) analyses, even when they were right, were vague compared to the model’s forecasts. To use an archery metaphor, if you hit the target, that’s great. But if you hit the bull’s eye—that’s amazing.”

Other Books


Principles of International Politics: People’s Power, Preferences, and Perceptions 4th Edition 2009; 3rd Edition 2006; 2nd Edition 2003; First Edition 2000. All Editions: Washington, D.C: CQ Press.

Prediction: Breakthroughs in Science, Markets and Politics (edited with Frank Wayman and Paul Williamson). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2010.

Strategy of Campaigning (with Kiron Skinner, Serhiy Kudelia, and Condoleezza Rice). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2007.

Dissolving Boundaries (with Suzanne Werner and David Davis, eds.). London: Basil Blackwell Publishers, 2004. Also published as a special issue of International Studies Review. Volume 5, No. 4, 2004.

The Logic of Political Survival (with Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow), Cambridge, MASS: MIT Press, 2003. Paperback edition, 2005. Award for Best Book on Conflict, 2002-2003, Conflict Processes Section, American Political Science Association.

Applying the Strategic Perspective: Problems and Models (with D. Scott Bennett). Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2003. Second Edition workbook for Principles of International Politics, 2nd edition. 3rd edition with Leanne C. Powner and D. Scott Bennett. 4th edition with Leanne C. Powner.

Predicting Politics. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2002. Simultaneous publication in cloth and paperback.

The Trial of Ebenezer Scrooge. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2001. Simultaneous publication in cloth and paperback editions.

Governing for Prosperity (with Hilton Root, eds.), New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000. Simultaneous publication in cloth and paperback editions. Translated into Chinese, China Renmin University Press, 2007.

Red Flag Over Hong Kong (with David Newman and Alvin Rabushka), Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1996. Paperback edition in 1996. South China Morning Post, Best Seller List 1996. Translated into Japanese 1997.

European Community Decision Making: Models, Applications, and Comparisons (with Frans Stokman, eds.). New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994.

War and Reason (with David Lalman). New Haven: Yale University Press, 1992. Paperback edition in 1994.

Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong (with David Newman and Alvin Rabushka). New Haven: Yale University Press, 1985. Paperback edition in 1988.

The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981. Paperback edition in 1983. Excerpted in John A. Vasquez and Marie T. Henehan, eds. The Scientific Study of Peace and War. New York: Lexington Books, 1992, pp. 141-160.

India’s Political System, revised edition (with Richard L. Park). Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, 1979.

Strategy, Risk, and Personality in Coalition Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1975.

Articles

“A Political Economy of Aid,” (with Alastair Smith). International Organization. 63, 2 (Spring 2009):309-340.

“Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change,” (with Alastair Smith). Comparative Political Studies 42, 2 (February 2009): 167-197. Winner, 2008 Franklin L. Burdette/Pi Sigma Alpha Award for best paper presented at the 2007 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. Winner, 2007 Best Paper Award, Political Economy Section of the American Political Science Association.

“War and Rationality,” in Manus Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies III. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, forthcoming 2009.

“Foreign Policy Analysis and Rational Choice Models,” in Compendium Project, International Studies Association, forthcoming 2009.

“Some Stylized Views of War’s Causes,” in Gregory Hess, ed., Title Not Yet Determined, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, forthcoming 2009.

“Retesting Selectorate Theory: Separating the Effects of W from Other Elements of Democracy,” (with James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson and Alastair Smith). American Political Science Review 1022, 3 (August, 2008):pp. 393-400.

“Leopold II and the Selectorate: An Account in Contrast to a Racial Explanation,” Historical Social Research [Historische Sozialforschung], 32, 4 (2007): 203-221.
“Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions,” (with Alastair Smith). Journal of Conflict Resolution. 51 (April 2007): 251-284.

“Game Theory, Political Economy, and the Evolving Study of War and Peace,” American Political Science Review, (November, 2006):637-642.

“Intervention and Democracy,” (with George W. Downs) International Organization 60, 3 (July 2006):627-49.

“Complements in the Quest for Understanding Comparative Politics,” APSA-CP Newsletter 17 (Summer 2006):11-14.

“Selection Institutions and War Aims,” (with James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith) Economics of Governance, 7, 1 (2006):31-52.

“Central Issues in the Study of International Conflict” in Barry Weingast and Donald Witman, eds. Oxford Handbook of Political Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006, pp.831-51.
“Thinking Inside the Box: A Closer Look at Democracy and Human Rights,” (with Feryal Cherif, George W. Downs, and Alastair Smith) International Studies Quarterly. 49, 3 (September 2005):439-457. Reprinted in Todd Lanman, ed., Human Rights. Sage Publications: 2009.
“The Rise of Sustainable Autocracy,” (with George W. Downs). Foreign Affairs, 84, 5 (September/October 2005):77-86.

“Testing Competing Institutional Explanations of the Democratic Peace: The Case of Dispute Duration,” (with Michael T. Koch and Randolph M. Siverson) Conflict Management and Peace Science (Winter 2004), 255-68.

“Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War,” (with James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith) World Politics 56 (April 2004), 363-88.
“The Methodical Study of Politics,” in Ian Shapiro, Rogers M. Smith, and Tarek E. Masoud, eds. Problems and Methods in the Study of Politics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004, pp. 227-47.

“Negotiation in International Politics,” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (Fall 2004), 155-58.

“The ‘National Interest’ Versus Individual Political Ambition: Democracy, Autocracy, and the Reciprocation of Force and Violence in Militarized Interstate Disputes,” (with James Ray) in Paul Diehl, ed., The Scourge of War: New Extensions on an Old Problem. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2004, pp. 94-119.

“Decision Making Models, Rigor, and New Puzzles,” European Union Politics 2004, 5 (1):125-138.

“Crossing No Man’s Land: Cooperation from the Trenches,” (with Rose McDermott). 2004. Political Psychology 25, 2:271-287.

“Getting Firm on Replication,” International Studies Perspectives February 2003, Volume 4, pp. 98-100.

Journalism

Feature Story by Clive Thompson. The New York Times Sunday Magazine Section. August 9, 2009.

Feature Story, “In NBC Deal, Learn from Game Theory” by Dennis K. Berman, Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2009.

“Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,,” Feature Interview by Sara Forrest, Computer World 43, 22 (June 22, 2009), pp. 16-17.

“The Next Nostradamus,” History Channel, December 1, 2008.

Cover Story: “The New Nostradamus,” by Michael Lerner. Good Magazine, November/December 2007 Issue.

“Politics Begins at the Water’s Edge,” (with Kiron Skinner, Serhiy Kudelia and Condoleezza Rice). Op Ed page, The New York Times, September 15, 2007.

“Game Theory,” Feature interview by Maryann Keady, August 10, 2007, http://www.asia2025.net/index.cgi?s=article&id=40
EconTalk, “Bueno de Mesquita on Reagan, Yeltsin, and the Strategy of Political Campaigning,” July 23, 2007, http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2007/07/bueno_de_mesqui.html
EconTalk, “Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on Democracies and Dictatorships,” February 12, 2007, http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2007/02/bruce_bueno_de.html
“Open Economie, Gesloten Samenleving,” (with George W. Downs) De Volkskrant, September 3, 2005, p. 3.

“An Open Economy, a Closed Society,” (with George W. Downs) International Herald Tribune, August 17, 2005, Op Ed page.

“Gun-Barrel Democracy Has Failed Time and Again,” (with George W. Downs) Los Angeles Times, February 4, 2004, Op Ed page.

“Preventing Future Enrons,” The Weekly Standard, April 15, 2002, p. 45; also published in The New Republic, April 22, 2002, p. 13.

“A Leaky Umbrella for Nuclear Stability,” The Record, Bergen County, NJ, August 14, 2001. Also published in The Weekly Standard, September 3, 2001, p. 41; The New Republic, September 10, 2001, p. 15; Reason, November 2001, p. 67.

“Tying Mideast Peace to Tourism Dollars Worth Try,” Houston Chronicle, Outlook, June 26, 2001, 3 Star, p. 19. Also published as “Tourism Money Could Make Difference in Mideast Conflict,” Contra Costa Times, News Section Final Edition, p. 11., July 1, 2001; “Creating Incentives for Israeli-Palestinian Peace,” The Weekly Standard, July 16, 2001, p. 41; “Creating Incentives for Israeli-Palestinian Peace,” National Review, July 23, 2001, p. 9. “Creating Incentives for Israeli-Palestinian Peace,” The New Republic, July 23, 2001, p. 13.

“New Tools for Negotiators,” The McKinsey Quarterly, 2, 2001. Feature Article by Tera Allas and Nikos Georgiades regarding use of my forecasting model by McKinsey Consulting.
“Science Solves the Problem of Deals,” The Independent (Focus Article), London, February 16, 2000. Feature Article by Diane Coyle.

“Why Politics Should Not Stop at the Water’s Edge,” The Weekly Standard, 5, 9, November 15, 1999, last page.

“IMF Loans Must Be Linked To Reform,” (with James D. Morrow and Hilton L. Root). Los Angeles Times, April 9, 1999.

“How Project Super Bowl Won the Day,” The Financial Times, January 23-24, 1999, p. 2. Feature Article by Hugo Dixon and Alexander Nicoll regarding use of my forecasting model by Decision Insights Inc.

“Bomb Tests: What India Really Wants,” MSNBC, May 15, 1998.

“Current Research,” The Chronicle of Higher Education. September 5, 1997, p. B7.

“For Hong Kong, a Bleak Future Under Beijing,” (with David Newman and Alvin Rabushka) The International Herald Tribune, July 1, 1996.

Red Flag Over Hong Kong featured in William McGurn “We Warned You,” Far Eastern Economic Review, June 13, 1996, p. 68.

“Repeal Order 12333,” (with David Newman) The New York Times, Sec. 1, p. 16, January 26, 1989.

“A Model of Power in a Global Market,” Information Week (June 13, 1988) pp. 42-46.

Feature Interview, “The World of Tomorrow,” Bottom Line, March 30, 1984.

“Freeze Could Heat Arms Scene,” Chicago Tribune, Sec. 1, p. 15, February 16, 1983 and reprinted in numerous other newspapers.

Feature Interview on Forecasts for 1984, Today Show, NBC News, December 27, 1983.
Feature Interview, “A Conversation with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: Where War is Likely in the Next Year or Two,” U.S. News and World Report, May 3, 1982.

“How to Make a Lasting Peace in the Middle East,” (with Bruce D. Berkowitz) Rochester Review (Spring, 1979), pp. 12-18.

WikiLeaks nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize

Find out who’s hunting Wikileaks founder by clicking the picture below:

Saying the secret-sharing website contributes to freedom of speech and government transparency. Snorre Valen, a 26-year-old member of Norway’s parliament, submitted the nomination Tuesday, the last day the Nobel Committee accepted proposals for 2011′s prize.

Chris Anderson: Julian, welcome. It’s been reported that WikiLeaks, your baby, has … in the last few years has released more classified documents than the rest of the world’s media combined. Can that possibly be true?

Julian Assange Wikileaks 2011.01.30 (60 Minutes show) HD 720p

http://www.ted.com The controversial website WikiLeaks collects and posts highly classified documents and video. Founder Julian Assange, who’s reportedly being sought for questioning by US authorities, talks to TED’s Chris Anderson about how the site operates, what it has accomplished — and what drives him. The interview includes graphic footage of a recent US airstrike in Baghdad.

Ron Paul Wikileaks Jan 26 2011 US-Gov using ‘National Security’ to Cover Up Lies Fraud

Transcript

Julian Assange: Yeah, can it possibly be true? It’s a worry — isn’t it? — that the rest of the world’s media is doing such a bad job that a little group of activists is able to release more of that type of information than the rest of the world press combined.

CA: How does it work? How do people release the documents? And how do you secure their privacy?

JA: So these are — as far as we can tell — classical whistleblowers. And we have a number of ways for them to get information to us. So we use just state-of-the-art encryption to bounce stuff around the Internet, to hide trails, pass it through legal jurisdictions like Sweden and Belgium to enact those legal protections. We get information in the mail, the regular postal mail, encrypted or not, vet it like a regular news organization, format it — which is sometimes something that’s quite hard to do, when you’re talking about giant databases of information — release it to the public and then defend ourselves against the inevitable legal and political attacks.

CA: So you make an effort to ensure the documents are legitimate. But you actually almost never know who the identity of the source is.

JA: That’s right, yeah. Very rarely do we ever know. And if we find out at some stage then we destroy that information as soon as possible. (Phone ring) God damn it.

(Laughter)

CA: I think that’s the CIA asking what the code is for a TED membership.

(Laughter)

So let’s take the example, actually. This is something you leaked a few years ago. If we can have this document up … So this was a story in Kenya a few years ago. Can you tell us what you leaked and what happened?

JA: So this is the Kroll Report. This was a secret intelligence report commissioned by the Kenyan government after its election in 2004. Prior to 2004, Kenya was ruled by Daniel arap Moi for about 18 years. He was a soft dictator of Kenya. And when Kibaki got into power — through a coalition of forces that were trying to clean up corruption in Kenya — they commissioned this report, spent about two million pounds on this and an associated report. And then the government sat on it and used it for political leverage on Moi, who was the richest man — still is the richest man — in Kenya. It’s the Holy Grail of Kenyan journalism. So I went there in 2007, and we managed to get hold of this just prior to the election — the national election, December 28. When we released that report, we did so three days after the new president, Kibaki, had decided to pal up with the man that he was going to clean out, Daniel arap Moi. So this report then became a dead albatross around president Kibaki’s neck.

CA: And — I mean, to cut a long story short — word of the report leaked into Kenya, not from the official media, but indirectly. And in your opinion, it actually shifted the election. JA: Yeah. So this became front page of the Guardian and was then printed in all the surrounding countries of Kenya, in Tanzanian and South African press. And so it came in from the outside. And that, after a couple of days, made the Kenyan press feel safe to talk about it. And it ran for 20 nights straight on Kenyan TV, shifted the vote by 10 percent, according to a Kenyan intelligence report, which changed the result of the election.

CA: Wow, so your leak really substantially changed the world?

JA: Yep.

(Applause)

CA: Here’s — We’re going to just show a short clip from this Baghdad airstrike video. The video itself is longer. But here’s a short clip. This is — this is intense material, I should warn you.

Radio: … just fuckin’, once you get on ‘em just open ‘em up. I see your element, uh, got about four Humvees, uh, out along … You’re clear. All right. Firing. Let me know when you’ve got them. Let’s shoot. Light ‘em all up. C’mon, fire! (Machine gun fire) Keep shoot ‘n. Keep shoot ‘n. (Machine gun fire) Keep shoot ‘n. Hotel … Bushmaster Two-Six, Bushmaster Two-Six, we need to move, time now! All right, we just engaged all eight individuals. Yeah, we see two birds, and we’re still firing. Roger. I got ‘em. Two-Six, this is Two-Six, we’re mobile. Oops, I’m sorry. What was going on? God damn it, Kyle. All right, hahaha. I hit ‘em.

CA: So, what was the impact of that?

JA: The impact on the people who worked on it was severe. We ended up sending two people to Baghdad to further research that story. So this is just the first of three attacks that occurred in that scene.

CA: So, I mean, 11 people died in that attack, right, including two Reuters employees?

JA: Yeah. Two Reuters employees, two young children were wounded. There were between 18 and 26 people killed all together.

CA: And releasing this caused widespread outrage. What was the key element of this that actually caused the outrage, do you think?

JA: I don’t know, I guess people can see the gross disparity in force. You have guys walking in a relaxed way down the street, and then an Apache helicopter sitting up in one corner firing 30-millimeter cannon shells on everyone — looking for any excuse to do so — and killing people rescuing the wounded. And there was two journalists involved that clearly weren’t insurgents because that’s their full-time job.

CA: I mean, there’s been this U.S. intelligence analyst, Bradley Manning, arrested. And it’s alleged that he confessed in a chat room to have leaked this video to you, along with 280,000 classified U.S. embassy cables. I mean, did he?

JA: Well, we have denied receiving those cables. He has been charged, about five days ago, with obtaining 150,000 cables and releasing 50. Now, we had released early in the year a cable from the Reykjavik U.S. embassy. But this is not necessarily connected. I mean, I was a known visitor of that embassy.

CA: I mean, if you did receive thousands of U.S. embassy diplomatic cables …

JA: We would have released them. (CA: You would?)

JA: Yeah. (CA: Because?)

JA: Well, because these sort of things reveal what the true state of, say, Arab governments are like, the true human-rights abuses in those governments. If you look at declassified cables, that’s the sort of material that’s there.

CA: So let’s talk a little more broadly about this. I mean, in general, what’s your philosophy? Why is it right to encourage leaking of secret information?

JA: Well, there’s a question as to what sort of information is important in the world, what sort of information can achieve reform. And there’s a lot of information. So information that organizations are spending economic effort into concealing, that’s a really good signal that when the information gets out, there’s a hope of it doing some good. Because the organizations that know it best, that know it from the inside out, are spending work to conceal it. And that’s what we’ve found in practice. And that’s what the history of journalism is.

CA: But are there risks with that, either to the individuals concerned or indeed to society at large, where leaking can actually have an unintended consequence?

JA: Not that we have seen with anything we have released. I mean, we have a harm immunization policy. We have a way of dealing with information that has sort of personal — personally identifying information in it. But there are legitimate secrets — you know, your records with your doctor; that’s a legitimate secret. But we deal with whistleblowers that are coming forward that are really sort of well motivated.

CA: So they are well-motivated. And what would you say to, for example, the, you know, the parent of someone — whose son is out serving the U.S. military, and he says, “You know what, you’ve put up something that someone had an incentive to put out. It shows a U.S. soldier laughing at people dying. That gives the impression — has given the impression to millions of people around the world that U.S. soldiers are inhuman people. Actually, they’re not. My son isn’t. How dare you?” What would you say to that?

JA: Yeah, we do get a lot of that. But remember, the people in Baghdad, the people in Iraq, the people in Afghanistan — they don’t need to see the video; they see it every day. So it’s not going to change their opinion. It’s not going to change their perception. That’s what they see every day. It will change the perception and opinion of the people who are paying for it all. And that’s our hope.

CA: So you found a way to shine light into what you see as these sort of dark secrets in companies and in government. Light is good. But do you see any irony in the fact that, in order for you to shine that light, you have to, yourself, create secrecy around your sources?

JA: Not really. I mean, we don’t have any WikiLeaks dissidents yet. We don’t have sources who are dissidents on other sources. Should they come forward, that would be a tricky situation for us. But we’re presumably acting in such a way that people feel morally compelled to continue our mission, not to screw it up.

CA: I’d actually be interested, just based on what we’ve heard so far — I’m curious as to the opinion in the TED audience. You know, there might be a couple of views of WikiLeaks and of Julian. You know, hero — people’s hero — bringing this important light. Dangerous troublemaker. Who’s got the hero view? Who’s got the dangerous troublemaker view?

JA: Oh, come on. There must be some.

CA: It’s a soft crowd, Julian, a soft crowd. We have to try better. Let’s show them another example. Now here’s something that you haven’t yet leaked, but I think for TED you are. I mean it’s an intriguing story that’s just happened, right. What is this?

JA: So this is a sample of what we do sort of every day. So late last year — in November last year — there was a series of well blowouts in Albania like the well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico, but not quite as big. And we got a report — a sort of engineering analysis into what happened — saying that, in fact, security guards from some rival, various competing oil firms had, in fact, parked trucks there and blown them up. And part of the Albanian government was in this, etc., etc. And the engineering report had nothing on the top of it. So it was an extremely difficult document for us. We couldn’t verify it because we didn’t know who wrote it and knew what it was about. So we were kind of skeptical that maybe it was a competing oil firm just sort of playing the issue up. So under that basis, we put it out an said, “Look, we’re skeptical about this thing. We don’t know, but what can we do? The material looks good, it feels right, but we just can’t verify it.” And we then got a letter just this week from the company who wrote it, wanting to track down the source — (Laughter) saying, “Hey, we want to track down the source.” And we were like, “Oh, tell us more. What document, precisely, is it you’re talking about? Can you show that you had legal authority over that document? Is it really yours?” So they sent us this screen shot with the author in the Microsoft Word ID. Yeah. (Applause) That’s happened quite a lot though. This is like one of our methods of identifying — of verifying what a material is, is to try and get these guys to write letters.

CA: Yeah. Have you had information from inside BP.

JA: Yeah, we have a lot, but I mean, at the moment, we are undergoing a sort of serious fundraising and engineering effort. So our publication rate over the past few months has been sort of minimized while we’re re-engineering our back systems for the phenomenal public interest that we have. That’s a problem. I mean, like any sort of growing startup organization, we are sort of overwhelmed by our growth. And that means we’re getting enormous quantity of whistleblower disclosures of a very high caliber, but don’t have enough people to actually process and vet this information.

CA: So that’s the key bottleneck, basically journalistic volunteers and/or the funding of journalistic salaries?

JA: Yep. Yeah, and trusted people. I mean, we’re an organization that is hard to grow very quickly because of the sort of material we deal with. So we have to restructure in order to have people who will deal with the highest national security stuff, and then lower security cases.

CA: So help us understand about you personally and how you came to do this. And I think I read that as a kid you went to 37 different schools. Can that be right?

JA: Well, my parents were in the movie business and then on the run from a cult, so the combination between the two …

(Laughter)

CA: I mean, a psychologist might say that’s a recipe for breeding paranoia.

JA: What, the movie business?

(Laughter)

(Applause)

CA: And you were also — I mean, you were also a hacker at an early age and ran into the authorities early on. JA: Well, I was a journalist. You know, I was a very young journalist activist at an early age. I wrote a magazine, was prosecuted for it when I was a teenager. So you have to be careful with hacker. I mean there’s like — there’s a method that can be deployed for various things. Unfortunately, at the moment, it’s mostly deployed by the Russian mafia in order to steal your grandmother’s bank accounts. So this phrase is not — not as nice as it used to be.

CA: Yeah, well, I certainly don’t think you’re stealing anyone’s grandmother’s bank account. But what about your core values? Can you give us a sense of what they are and maybe some incident in your life that helped determine them?

JA: I’m not sure about the incident. But the core values: well, capable, generous men do not create victims; they nurture victims. And that’s something from my father and something from other capable, generous men that have been in my life.

CA: Capable, generous men do not create victims; they nurture victims?

JA: Yeah. And you know, I’m a combative person, so I’m not actually sort of big on the nurture. But some way — There is another way of nurturing victims, which is to police perpetrators of crime. And so that is something that has been in my character for a long time.

CA: So just tell us, very quickly in the last minute, the story: what happened in Iceland? You basically published something there, ran into trouble with a bank, then the news service there was injuncted from running the story. Instead, they publicized your side. That made you very high-profile in Iceland. What happened next?

JA: Yeah, this is a great case, you know. Iceland went through this financial crisis. It was the hardest hit of any country in the world. Its banking sector was 10 times the GDP of the rest of the economy. Anyway, so we release this report in July last year. And the national TV station was injuncted five minutes before it went on air. Like out of a movie, injunction landed on the news desk, and the news reader was like, “This has never happened before. What do we do?” Well, we just show the website instead, for all that time, as a filler. And we became very famous in Iceland, went to Iceland and spoke about this issue. And there was a feeling in the community that that should never happen again. And as a result, working with some Icelandic politicians and some other international legal experts, we put together a new sort of package of legislation for Iceland to sort of become an offshore haven for the free press, with the strongest journalistic protections in the world, with a new Nobel Prize for freedom of speech. Iceland’s a Nordic country so, like Norway, it’s able to tap into the system. And just a month ago, this was passed by the Icelandic parliament unanimously.

CA: Wow.

(Applause)

Last question, Julian. When you think of the future then, do you think it’s more likely to be Big Brother exerting more control, more secrecy, or us watching Big Brother, or it’s just all to be played for either way?

JA: I’m not sure which way it’s going to go. I mean there’s enormous pressures to harmonize freedom of speech legislation and transparency legislation around the world — within the E.U., between China and the United States. Which way is it going to go? It’s hard to see. That’s why it’s a very interesting time to be in. Because with just a little bit of effort we can shift it one way or the other.

CA: Well, it looks like I’m reflecting the audience’s opinion to say, Julian, be careful and all power to you.

JA: Thank you, Chris. (CA: Thank you.)

(Applause)

Shadia Drury, in Leo Strauss and the American Right (1999), argues that Strauss inculcated an elitist strain in American political leaders linked to imperialist militarism, neoconservatism and Christian fundamentalism. Drury argues that Strauss teaches that “perpetual deception of the citizens by those in power is critical because they need to be led, and they need strong rulers to tell them what’s good for them.” Source

THIS FILM OUTLINES HOW THE GOVERNMENT ACTS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTION TO PREVENT THREATS BASED ON NOTHING MORE THAN A PHANTASY ABOUT AN ORGANIZATION THAT DOESN’T EVEN EXIST IN IMAGINING THE WORST WITHOUT A SHREAD OF EVIDENCE.

Politicians designed and present to the masses the nightmare scenarios to pursue their agenda.

Power of Nightmares – “The Phantom Victory” – 1/6 – Adam Curtis

Power of Nightmares – “The Phantom Victory” – 2/6 – Adam Curtis

Power of Nightmares – “The Phantom Victory” – 3/6 – Adam Curtis

Power of Nightmares – “The Phantom Victory” – 4/6 – Adam Curtis

Power of Nightmares – “The Phantom Victory” – 5/6 – Adam Curtis

Power of Nightmares – “The Phantom Victory” – 6/6 – Adam Curtis

Power of Nightmares – “Shadows In The Cave” – 1/6 – Adam Curtis

The Power of Nightmares – Shadows In The Cave – Adam Curtis – 2/6

The Power of Nightmares – Shadows In The Cave – Adam Curtis – 3/6

The Power of Nightmares – Shadows In The Cave – Adam Curtis – 4/6

The Power of Nightmares – Shadows In The Cave – Adam Curtis – 5/6

The Power of Nightmares – Shadows In The Cave – Adam Curtis – 6/6

Many thanks to Adam Curtis and his team at the BBC for producing this fascinating and brilliant documentary!!

Was Orwell Right? Answer: YES – Net Delusion

Who really benefits from the internet and social media technology? Evgeny Morozov delves into this question in his new book, Net Delusion: The Dark Side of the Internet. He argues that, contrary to common belief, this new technology often empowers Big Brother far more than the individual. It is not the young protestors and dissidents but rather the regimes in Teheran and Beijing that are the Web’s greatest beneficiaries.

Stanford visiting fellow Evgeny Morozov, Net Delusion.


This event is co-sponsored by the New America Foundation and Foreign Policy.

and Susan Glasser, Editor-in-Chief of Foreign Policy

Crude Oil Price Forecast
West Texas Intermediate Spot Price. USD/bbl. Average of Month.

Feb 2011 = $92.6
Mar 2011 = $94.3
Apr 2011 = $97.3
May 2011 = $100.2
Jun 2011 = $103.3
Jul 2011 = $106.3

All forecasts are provided AS IS, and forcasts.org or futurepredictions.com LLC, disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Updated Thursday, December 09, 2010
Source: forecasts.org

Sut Jhally on Peak Oil

Adverstising & the Perfect Storm: Global Warming, Peak Oil & Consumer Debt presented by Sut Jhally is sponsored by the Foundation for the 8th annual Commager Lecture. Prof Jhally, Communication of Umass and Founder/Exec Director of the Media Education Foundation (MEF).

Noam Chomsky on Peak Oil

Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations.