Category: Forecasting



Bueno de Mesquita is a professor of applied game theory at New York University and a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is also a consultant to the CIA. His predictions reportedly are usually more accurate than those of CIA staffers. Since the early 1980s the CIA has hired Bueno de Mesquita to perform more than 1,000 predictions.

Fareed Zakaria GPS : Global elections panel in 2012

Richard Haass, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

discuss global elections in 2012.

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Predictions for International Security:

The Knowledge Practice Enigma

Access the papers.

 

This conference brings scholars from different disciplines – political science and international relations, sociology, history, economics, demography and philosophy – into a discussion on the nature of predictions in international security. It will address the following questions. How are claims about the future made in international security, a professional realm that is obsessed with knowing the future? How are these claims “sold” on the public marketplace of ideas? Is anticipating the future about anticipating change?

Links

[Sourced by: interdisciplines.org]

GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS TO EXPAND
[Click Infographic below to play Reuters.com Presentation]

Some note that Harry S. Dent is a glass is empty kind of futurist, although he correctly pointed out the crash of 2008 – 2009 more correctly then not, with his focus on demographic challenges we all face as we move towards 2015. “The Dent Method is a long term economic forecasting technique based on the study of and changes in demographic trends and their impact on our economy. As the only documented record of success at forecasting long term economic trends, The Dent Method works by showing how predictable consumer spending patterns combined with demographic trends allow us to forecast the economy years or even decades in advance.”

Douglass Lodmell interviews well-known author, economist and demographic expert, Harry S. Dent, Jr. This encompassing discussion touches on the chances for a global recovery, inflation, deflation, asset prices and Harry’s prediction from a demographic standpoint of the stock market. Harry also makes a specific prescription for surviving the coming crash and even thriving through it.

U.S. SPENDING PROJECTIONS THRU 2055 AS REVENUE THEN WON’T EVEN COVER DEBT INTEREST COSTS

[Source Peterson Foundation]

WHAT IS DEBT? A HISTORY OF DEBT OVER THE PAST 5,000 YEARS!

GROSS DEBT, AS OF GDP, PER CAPITA STATISTICS FOR THE TOP 20 WORLD’S MOST IN DEBT COUNTRIES

The U.S.A. ranks 20th…

20. United States – External debt (as % of GDP): 101.1%
Gross external debt: $14.825 trillion
2009 GDP (est): $14.66 trillion
External debt per capita: $48,258

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THE MEGA LIST OF FUTURE PREDICTION
RESEARCH CENTERS

Organizations · Research Centers · Think Tanks

The trend is clear that the major universities, international R&D centers, corporations R&D centers, governments, military industrial complex R&D centers, and great thinkers have and will continue to focus on “Futures Studies” as an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday’s and today’s changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futuristics, futures thinking or futuring. Futures studies and the sub-discipline strategic foresight are the academic field’s most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world, (Source http://www.wikipedia.org/).

Futurepredictions.com has assembled a current list for easy access of just a few of the leading centers which include:

Get the complete list of nearly 100 top centers:
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