Archive for October 6, 2011

Future Predictions: Steve Jobs Predicting the Future



On Predicting the Future 13 Surprising Predictions by Steve Jobs

Posted by Ant on April 14th, 2009
[Via Direct Quote from]

1. He knew there would be a second coming
“I’ll always stay connected with Apple. I hope that throughout my life I’ll sort of have the thread of my life and the thread of Apple weave in and out of each other, like a tapestry. There may be a few years when I’m not there, but I’ll always come back.” — Playboy, 1985

2. He knew DRM was doomed from the start
“We don’t believe it’s possible to protect digital content… What’s new is this amazingly efficient distribution system for stolen property called the Internet — and no one’s gonna shut down the Internet. And it only takes one stolen copy to be on the Internet. And the way we expressed it to them is: Pick one lock — open every door. It only takes one person to pick a lock… You’ll never stop that. So what you have to do is compete with it.” — Rolling Stone, 2003

3. He knew the rise of generic PCs would stifle advancement
“If, for some reason, we make some big mistake and IBM wins, my personal feeling is that we are going to enter a computer Dark Ages for about twenty years. Once IBM gains control of a market sector, they always stop innovation — they prevent innovation from happening.” — Playboy, 1985

4. He knew he could bring Apple back from the (almost) dead
“You know, I’ve got a plan that could rescue Apple. I can’t say any more than that it’s the perfect product and the perfect strategy for Apple. But nobody there will listen to me.” — Fortune, 1995

5. He knew the internet would change our lives forever
“The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people—as remarkable as the telephone.” — Playboy, 1985

6. He knew the iTunes business model would crush the competition
“We said: These [music subscription] services that are out there now are going to fail. Music Net’s gonna fail, Press Play’s gonna fail. Here’s why: People don’t want to buy their music as a subscription. They bought 45′s; then they bought LP’s; then they bought cassettes; then they bought 8-tracks; then they bought CD’s. They’re going to want to buy downloads. People want to own their music. You don’t want to rent your music — and then, one day, if you stop paying, all your music goes away.” — Rolling Stone, 2003

7. He knew the record labels would stupidly demand higher pricing
“Customers think the price is really good where it is. We’re trying to compete with piracy — we’re trying to pull people away from piracy and say, ‘You can buy these songs legally for a fair price.’ But if the price goes up a lot, they’ll go back to piracy. Then, everybody loses.” — 2005

8. He knew Disney would have to join forces with Pixar to stay relevant
“I think Pixar has the opportunity to be the next Disney — not replace Disney — but be the next Disney.” — BusinessWeek, 1998

9. He knew the iTunes Store would change everything
“It will go down in history as a turning point for the music industry. This is landmark stuff. I can’t overestimate it!” — Fortune, 2003

10. He knew Apple’s portables would lead the industry
“[Portable computers] are OK if you’re a reporter and trying to take notes on the run. But for the average person, they’re really not that useful, and there’s not all that software for them, either. By the time you get your software done, a new one comes out with a slightly bigger display and your software is obsolete. So nobody is writing any software for them. Wait till we do it—the power of a Macintosh in something the size of a book!” — Playboy, 1985

11. He knew the iPhone would come (22 years before it did)
“The developments will be in making the products more and more portable, networking them, getting out laser printers, getting out shared data bases, getting out more communications ability, maybe the merging of the telephone and the personal computer.” — Playboy, 1985

12. He knew the graphic user interface would be the basis of all computers
“I was so blinded by the first thing they showed me, which was the graphical user interface. I thought it was the best thing I’d ever seen in my life… And within 10 minutes it was obvious to me that all computers would work like this.” — PBS, 1996

13. He knew how to handle tough economic times (and still does)
“We’ve had one of these before, when the dot-com bubble burst. What I told our company was that we were just going to invest our way through the downturn, that we weren’t going to lay off people, that we’d taken a tremendous amount of effort to get them into Apple in the first place — the last thing we were going to do is lay them off. And we were going to keep funding. In fact we were going to up our R&D budget so that we would be ahead of our competitors when the downturn was over. And that’s exactly what we did. And it worked. And that’s exactly what we’ll do this time.” — Fortune, 2008

Specifically, ARPA-E was established and charged with the following objectives:

To bring a freshness, excitement, and sense of mission to energy research that will attract many of the U.S.’s best and brightest minds—those of experienced scientists and engineers, and, especially, those of students and young researchers, including persons in the entrepreneurial world;

To focus on creative “out-of-the-box” transformational energy research that industry by itself cannot or will not support due to its high risk but where success would provide dramatic benefits for the nation;

To utilize an ARPA-like organization that is flat, nimble, and sparse, capable of sustaining for long periods of time those projects whose promise remains real, while phasing out programs that do not prove to be as promising as anticipated; and

To create a new tool to bridge the gap between basic energy research and development/industrial innovation.

[Via Source ARPAE]