NEWLY PUBLISHED
The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
Testing the Selectorate Explanation of the Democratic Peace
Access the paper dempeace_bdm
by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
The Dyadic Selectorate Model
The theory shows that leaders who require a large coalition to remain in office favor spending resources on public goods rather than on private benefits for their coalition of supporters (…). Leaders who rely on a small winning coalition, such as autocrats, hold power by spending resources disproportionately on private goods to reward their backers.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Wiki
CIA acknowledges Bruce is twice as accurate as they are in predicting,
with a 90% accuracy rate.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates his techniques on the future of Iran…
Predictably the other side of the story, those reviewing Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Riz Khan – The art and science of prediction
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Any thoughts on the global economic melt down? Is it a con to encourage ordinary folk to continue to self-police society?
Very interesting video. I wonder what kind of software he is using. I listened to the whole talk. How can they enter such complex factors into the software.
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I’m a firm believer in Bruces abilities.. And since I’m living in Los Angeles… I’d be VERY interested if he ever made a prediction on the next BIG EARTHQUAKE here…
Thankyou thankyou
John
Humans are pretty predictable creatures – if you know enough of the variables, you can predict groups movements. It’s not magic, it’s math.
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